One of the best things about the afterglow of a World Championship is how irrational we as fans get about the players who took us there. We wax poetic about every positive they bring to the table, while disregarding anything remotely negative since, “We won it all”. We forget the business side of it and commit ourselves to seeing only the good in them.

It’s like we become their Mom. No objectivity whatsoever.

Listen, I’m as guilty of this as anybody.

“Pat Burrell HAS to come back next year. He’s not that slow. Plus, how can we replace that consistent production?”

“Ryan Howard’s strikeouts are overrated. Albert Pujols is Ryan Howard’s ballboy.”

“Kyle Kendrick is going to totally bounce back and fulfill his destiny as a Phillies starter”.

“Adam Eaton is going to totally bounce back and fulfill his destiny as a Phillies starter”.

“I’d let Brett Myers date my sister”.

Here’s the one I heard the other day, though, that got me thinking. And stat checking:

“Jamie Moyer is a Hall of Fame pitcher”.

Now, I love Jamie. As much as everyone else does. He is, as they say, “a gamer”. His first two 2008 postseason games notwithstanding, he has been as consistent a pitcher as the Phillies have had since he arrive here in mid 2006. His 246 wins could become 280 if a lot of things go right for him over the next few years.

But Jamie Moyer is not going into the Hall of Fame. Not unless he wins 300 games. And that would take three 18 win seasons for a guy who turned 46 yesterday. Happy Birthday Jamie.

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Moyer wins 36 more games in his career. And that is a huge assumption. He would finish with 282 career wins. Let’s also assume his career ERA (which stands at 4.19) stays flat, which is a safe bet since his average yearly ERA in the 00′s has been 4.22.

Moyer would finish with 286 wins, a .571 winning % and an ERA of 4.19. No pitcher has ever been inducted into the Hall of Fame with an ERA north of 4.00.

Even if the Hall began to inducted overlooked pitchers like Jim Kaat (283, .544, 3.45), Jack Morris (254, .577, 3.90 and the winningest pitcher in the 80s) and Dennis Martinez (245, .559, 3.70), Moyer still probably wouldn’t get in because his ERA is well above theirs, even though other stats are relatively similar.

Heck, even Bert Blyleven – he of the 287 wins and 3.31 ERA, is still on the outside looking in on Main St., Cooperstown NY. Blyleven did have a weaker winning % (.534), but if he doesn’t get in with a 3.31 ERA, how can Moyer see his way in with a 4.19?

I know I’m going to get 15 yards here for piling on, but Moyer ranks 45th out of active pitchers in adjusted ERA, which levels the playing field regarding park factors and takes into account league averages.  An adjusted ERA of 100 is average. Moyer has a 106 adjusted ERA, barely above average. Moyer contemporaries like Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez (sure-fire HOFers) have adjusted ERAs of 132 and 154, respectively.

Lastly, baseball-reference.com uses a couple of formulas to forecast potential Hall of Famers based on criteria that is consistent with those elected. Jamie ranks 34th among active pitchers on the Hall of Fame Monitor list.

The closest pitcher to Jamie Moyer who is in the Hall of Fame is Red Ruffing, who, over a 22 year career, won 273 games with a .548 winning % and a 3.80 ERA. His adjusted ERA was just 109. Hmm. I wonder how he got into the Hall. Oh, he was a Yankee for 16 of those 22 years. There you go.

So, Jamie Moyer may have to settle for “All-Star”, “World Series Champ”, and “”Gamer”. “Hall of Famer” should be reserved for the very best, and Mr. Moyer falls short of that.