The Phillies and Ryan Howard reached agreement on a 3 year, $54 million contract that buys out the first baseman’s remaining arbitration years.

Folks are going to applaud the Phils for gaining “cost cetrainty’ with this deal by knowing now how much of the overall budget will need to go to Howard for the next 3 seasons. But other than that, this deal is kind of a yawner. Ryan Howard is not long for this organization, as the Phillies will rightly avoid giving a record breaking long-term contract to a player with a makeup that screams “short term deal!”

The Phils still have the ability to trade Howard before free agency, even though it would cost them $1 million if they do it before Nov. 1, 2010. No big deal there.

In 3 years, Ryan Howard will be a large 32 year old, no glove slugger who will be better off in the American League. The Phillies are unlikely to be negotiating some monster contract with him at age 32. This could conceivably be the biggest contract Howard ever signs, be it with the Phillies or elsewhere.

There are no guarantees that the US economy will be out of the current recession in 3 years, and record unemployment and depressed earnings for fans will absolutely impact the bottom lines of sports franchises as discretionary spending is diminished. Howard could be looking at an economic climate no better than the one we have today, if not potentially worse.

Taking this deal for Howard is a no-brainer. He could have potentially made more money in arbitration if he had historic years, but the difference wouldn’t have been all that much more than what this deal includes. Plus, he protects against a career ending injury while going year to year on his contract. Plus, he can relax and play ball without the contract hanging over his head. Maybe he’ll shave those K’s down to 180.

For the Phillies, there isn’t a tremendous amount of downside either, unless Howard turns into the run producing equivalent of Adam Eaton. That is unlikely given Howard’s track record.

All that said, I don’t think this deal in any way changes the fact that Ryan Howard will not be a Phillie in 2012. He may not even make it to 2011.