One thing is certain. Despite the ill-advised proclamations from practically every member of the Mets roster, the Phillies ARE the team to beat. That’s what happens when you’re the team that caps off the season with the baseball version of a mosh pit. Only one team gets to do it each year, and while it may still seem surreal to those of us who follow this team, it was the Phillies in 2008 who enjoyed baseball’s sweetest moment.

But 2009 won’t be a walk in the park. The Phillies bring back almost the entire team that won it all in 2008, but their rivals have improved and not every offseason decision may payoff as the front office hopes it will.

Decisions, Decisions

The Phillies biggest offseason move was the signing of lefthanded hitting leftfielder Raul Ibanez. While Ibanez has hit well against southpaws recently, the decision to sign another lefthanded hitter to replace our only legitimate righthanded power hitter in Pat Burrell remains a curious decision. We won’t be able to fully judge the Burrell/Ibanez moves until at least the end of 2009.

What we do know is that the Phillies lack righthanded power off the bench, and their only righthanded hitter with real pop is Jayson Werth. Raul Ibanez offer little in improved defense over Burrell, and is 4 1/2 years his senior. The lack of lineup balance will make opposing managers’ jobs easier and Charlie Manuel’s more difficult.

The Phillies released 2 high profile busts this spring, but only one may have been the prudent decision. As Carson of We Should Be GMs points out, letting Geoff Jenkins go may not have been the wisest decision. Outfield depth is now sorely lacking. While Jenkins did not live up to expectations as a Phillie, shedding his contract without a clear plan to replace him on the OF depth chart is concerning.

Will Repeat Performances Lead To The Big Repeat?

Will we see “First Half” Durbin or “Second Half” Durbin? With Chan Ho Park in the rotation instead of the ‘pen, Chad Durbin’s ability to provide valuable innings in tight games will be paramount. He was done by mid August in 2008 after being heavily used in the first half. Charlie will need to pace Durbin better in 2008.

When Jimmy Rollins returned from the August West Coast road trip, he was serenaded with boos after referring to Philly fans as frontrunners on The Best Damn Sports Show Period. Perhaps the drama was exactly what Jimmy needed. The last game of the west coast trip was game 100 of the season. Through those first 100 games, Rollins hit just .266 with a paltry .333 OBP. He turned it on big time from Game 101 on, hitting .297 with a .391 OBP. Rollins’ ability to get back to the dominant offensive tablesetter that he was during his 2007 MVP year will have a lot to do with the Phillies’ success.

Can Jamie Moyer continue to defy Father Time? Phillies Nation has a less than bullish view on Jamie Moyer’s 2009 campaign. I expect more innings than Tim does, but don’t expect him to lead the team in wins like he did in 2008. I don’t see the Phils reaching the gaudy 94 win total that Jason Weitzel of Beerleaguer predicts without Moyer having another solid year.

Question Marks

Can Cole Hamels remain healthy throughout 2009? A significant loss of starts by Hamels will put a big dent in the Phillies’ pennant hopes. My best guess is that Hamels will miss a few starts, but won’t see the disabled list in 2009.

Brad Lidge will regress, right? We certainly shouldn’t expect perfection in 2009 from Lidge, but the degree with which Lidge coughs up late leads will be an interesting subplot in the months to come.

The NL East

The Marlins and Nationals will do their best to play spoilers during 2009, but make no mistake about it, the National League East is, much like the AL East, a 3 team division. The Mets and Braves will be chasing the Phillies all year, and both now have more bullets in the chamber to do so. The Phillies beat the Braves in 14 of 18 games played in 2008. Don’t expect a similar outcome in 2009 with Derek Lowe now anchoring the Braves rotation. The Phillies went a combined 21-15 against the Mets and Braves in 2009, largely on the back of that 14-4 mark against the Braves. The Phils need to go 21-15 against the Mets and Braves again in 2009. They’ll need to do it with more than 7 wins against the Mets.

The Mets have solidified the back end of their bullpen with the signing of Francisco Rodriguez and the trade for J.J. Putz, who will now occupy the setup role for the Mets. The remainder of the Mets’ roster is largely intact. They did not land Manny Ramirez, thankfully, but did snag the combustible and aged Gary Sheffield in the last couple of days. Do not underestimate Sheffield’s ability to add both positive and negative contributions to the Mets in 2009 as they open their new ballpark in Flushing.

So……..

While I have my concerns about the Phillies, this is still a very solid team. They could win as many as 95 games or as few as 85. In the end, I see them meeting in the middle with 90 wins and another nailbiting National League East pennant.

If a Phillie is going to win this MVP in 2009, it will be Chase Utley, although he will be wading in a deep pool of competition, including the likes of Hanley Ramirez, David Wright and Albert Pujols.

I think Cole’s Cy Young will need to wait at least another year. He may pay in 2009 physically for carrying the Phils in 2008.

Lastly, I would love nothing more than to see the Phillies repeat as World Series champs, but I don’t see it happening. It took 28 years for this team to win another World Series after taking the 1980 trophy. Winning it all is the result of great talent, a lack of trips to the DL, peaking at the right time and a degree of luck. Repeating is rare for a reason.