Will Cole’s Struggles Increase Chances For Halladay?
July 12th, 2009 by MattLast night’s thrilling 8-7 come-from-behind victory over the Pirates kept the Phils strong homestand intact, but does not remove the concern any fan has right now about Cole Hamels underwhelming 2009 campaign.
The storyline has already been well-documented. King Cole was the NLCS and World Series MVP as he set the table for each series win in Game 1 victories while also starting the clinching games as well. Then an offseason of meet and greets, media appearances and probably 250,000 autograph requests left Cole unprepared for the 2009 season.
I’m sure there isn’t a Phillies fan alive that would trade last years World Series for a strong 2009 season from Cole Hamels. But the fact remains that the pitcher the Phils need to anchor a mostly average rotation is not living up to the high expectations both he and his loyal subjects set for him on an every start basis.
Hamels’ season long inconsistency (5-5, 4.87 ERA) could have an effect on the franchise beyond just the lack of supreme confidence once every five days. Will the Phillies feel any additional pressure to trade for Toronto Bue jays ace Roy Halladay, who is now available to whichever team is willing to empty their farm system to get him. Can the Phillies become the first National League team since the Big Red Machine to go back to back on World Series wins?
There are two ways to look at the Halladay situation from the Blue Jays’ perspective. On the one hand, GM JP Ricciardi cannot take anything less than 2 blue chip prospects, or one blue chip prospect and an already proven major leaguer, since the Jays would get 2 high draft picks should Halladay leave at the end of next year. He could hold out for double that, and hope that some desperate team sends them 3 or more can’t miss prospects for Halladay.
The flip side of this argument is that losing Halladay for 2 draft picks won’t exactly be a good day for the Jays. Even high draft picks are no sure thing. But if he is serious about trading Halladay instead of just seeing him walk after the 2010 season, Ricciardi will have far more negotiating power this year, since the team getting Halladay gets him for 1.5 seasons and then, worst case, gets back 2 high picks should he go elsewhere.
The Jays won’t get nearly the return on Halladay next year that they could get this year. Ricciardi certainly knows that, so any team looking to land Halladay could wait this one out until very close to the trade deadline and see if the price for the ace righthander goes down.
Halladay would obviously be an amazing addition to the Phillies team, and the hometown nine would absolutely be an odds on favorite to return to the Fall Classic. But, if Ricciardi holds the line on wanting maximum return on Halladay, I would be quite happy with the team not biting if the price is J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and someone else. That is just too much to give up, especially considering Happ’s current performance for the big club.
The Phils do not have one of the deeper farm systems in baseball, and they need to keep cultivating their young talent in the minors, especially in light of the fact that a largely homegrown group delivered a World Series title in 2008. Starting pitching remains a concern, especially in a potential five game NLDS. Assuming that Hamels gets it together as the season motors toward the fall, they have a decent playoff rotation to play with. Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ have pitched extremely well in recent weeks, giving them 3 of the 4 starters necessary. Another starter is needed.
But it doesn’t have to be Halladay, especially if it means parting with previously “untouchable” prospects.
Luckily, news out of Toronto indicates that the Jays may not be able to move Halladay even if they wanted to, for fear of infuriating their fanbase with a perceived firesale of expensive talent.



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