We are going to find out very soon exactly how much Ruben Amaro Jr covets Blue Jays hurler Roy Halladay. Is he willing to part with top prospects like Kyle Drabek, who he refused to part with 5 months ago at the trade deadline? Or will Ruben be able to pry Roy Halladay away from the Blue Jays without giving up more than Cliff Lee and a couple of top 10 prospects that don’t include Drabek or Domonic Brown?

At this point, reading every beat writer’s tweets or blog updates is a waste of time. And frankly it is annoying. How can so many of these guys be so far off from one another in terms of which prospects are/are not included? Until it is on the Phillies website, I am taking it with a massive grain of salt, even if it is coming from someone as in the know as Jim Salisbury or Todd Zolecki.

I know that many Phillies fans will not like the notion of giving up Cliff Lee when the Phillies control him for one more year and could receive 2 picks for him when/if he leaves after 2010. But it seems clear that:

a. Cliff Lee wants to hit the free agent market and see what the market bears after the 2010 season.

b. Roy Halladay wants to be a Phillie and is willing to sign now.

I would prefer Lee over Halladay on a long-term deal: he has a rubber arm, obviously can pitch in the big game, and is one of the more deliberate, thinking pitchers the Phils have had take the mound in a long time. But, it’s hard to begrudge Lee in this case. He is going to be next offseason’s Tickle Me Elmo. He won a Cy Young 2 years ago and pitched brilliantly in his first playoff run in 2009. Someone is going to unload a Brinks truck onto his farm in Alabama. I have no doubt that Lee would strongly consider re-signing with the Phillies if we were the highest bidder or at least in the ballpark, but he is not looking to give a team he spent 4 months with a hometown discount. I can’t say I blame him.

On the other hand, the Phillies have to consider that Lee could be gone after next year and Halladay will be elsewhere by then. This isn’t a move that makes the Phillies appreciably better in 2010; it makes them a deeper rotation in 2011 when the Phils risked not having Halladay OR Lee.

This deal sounded a lot better at 5 pm this deal sounded a lot better than it does at midnight. The “news” that Kyle Drabek is/may be involved in this deal makes me really scratch my head. If Ruben was unwilling to let Drabek go at the deadline for Halladay, why do it now? The Phillies must get someone back to offset the loss of Drabek if they let him go. The popular name being thrown around is Mariners’ farmhand Phillippe Aumont, who was Seattle’s 2007 1st round draft pick.

Drabek is not far from joining the Phillies rotation, so Ruben had better be sure that Aumont is going to contribute, potentially in the back end of the bullpen down the road, if he is going to let go Drabek after being so reluctant to do it earlier. Letting Michael Taylor and Travis D’Arnaud go to complete this deal is the latest rumor.

The Blue Jays are the more desperate team in this trade scenario: Halladay has made it clear he wants this resolved by spring training. The Phillies could hold onto Lee into the season and trade him at the deadline if they felt like it. On December 14, what is the rush for Ruben that requires the Phils to include Drabek. Ruben should hold his ground and wait for the price to drop. With the Red Sox locking up John Lackey, there is already one less team that can make a Halladay deal happen.

So, when this is all said and done, the Phillies would have gotten:

3 months of Cliff Lee + Roy Halladay with an extension + Phillippe Aumont + Ben Francisco

for

Kyle Drabek + Michael Taylor + Travis D’Arnaud + Lou Marson + Jason Donald + Carlos Carrasco + Jason Knapp.

So, 7 prospects for Roy Halladay, Ben Francisco, Cliff Lee’s awesome late 2009 run and the Mariners’ top pitching prospect.

Would you do it?