Cole Can’t Afford A Rainy April

March 9th, 2010 by Matt

It was one of those surreal “How did we get here?” moments.

Halloween, 2009. Sect. 421. My Dad and I were still buried under our ponchos even though the rain was pretty much gone. Cole Hamels was walking off the mound in the top of the fifth inning after squandering an early 3-0 Phils’ lead in Game 3 of the World Series.

Before Charlie Manuel had taken the ball from Cole, you knew what was coming. Hamels ambled his way off the mound – dejected, and a healthy round of booing acted as the soundtrack for his long walk back to the dugout.

This was just one year after the parade. Is there any precedent for a Philly athlete going from the hero of a championship team to heel in one years’ time?

Hamels, for his part, laid pretty low after the Series was over. After his ill-advised postgame remarks from Game 3 about looking forward to the end of the season, Hamels essentially vanished. All that was left was plenty of ink to burn through on speculating about what 2009 would mean for Hamels’ 2010 and beyond. Talk of secondary pitches was popular, as 2009 clearly demonstrated that Cole could not dominate based on a plus fastball, killer change and subpar curveball.

By all accounts, Hamels has come to spring training with a renewed focus. He showed up early, has demonstrated a desire to master not just one, but 2 additional pitches and he’s saying all the right things to the scribes. I think that the appropriate stance for even the most cynical among us is to see how it goes – give Cole a chance in April to show us that 2009 was to Cole what 2003 was to Pat Burrell – a lost year. A barely explainable, completely forgettable and regrettable crap year.

Which brings me back to Halloween, 2009. The boos. It’s been months, and the wounds from the 2009 Series have almost entirely healed, but it won’t take more than 1 bad start before the natives get restless. April will go a long way to determining how successful Hamels is in 2010. If he starts off strong, he’ll get the fans back and the bad memories from 2009 will continue to dissipate. If he gets hit around in April and doesn’t make it to the 6th inning in his first 2 starts, gestures when his defense boots a ball and in general gives up a run every other inning he is pitching, he is going to become persona non grata in a hurry. And then God knows where it will go from there. He’s used up his mulligans with the average fan. Don’t believe me? Listen to the chatter in the mens’ room during one of his outings when it isn’t going well.

My guess is that Hamels is going to start well and that 2010 will be a much better year. Not for reasons like BABIP or other metrics that speak to the notion that Hamels was as much a victim of bad luck in 2009 as he was himself. But because he had a real offseason, he prepped his arm in a much better fashion and is already showing velocity that is at or near where you’d expect it to be during the regular season. Because he showed up early and seems to be focused on a big rebound. Because he’s a year older and certainly wiser for living through 2009. Because maybe he needed to be knocked off that pedestal that we all elevated him to in order to build an even higher one.

As for the fans, I think they’ll forgive and forget. At least during the first homestand.

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